Influence of satisfaction, expectations and perception of performance on university dropout during the pandemic

Abstract

University dropout is a growing area of research owing to the diverse negative consequences it can entail. It is a complex phenomenon involving multiple variables, including emotional-motivational factors. Some of these variables, such as satisfaction with higher education and expectations of the degree, are especially relevant among first-year students, and even more so in a context of forced virtualization, as has been the case during the COVID-19 crisis. The aim of this study is to analyse the relationship between emotional-motivational variables and dropout intention among a group of students, and to assess their perception of their academic performance during the pandemic. The sample for the study comprised 513 first- and second-year students from different Social Sciences and Health Sciences degrees at two Spanish public universities. An ad hoc questionnaire was used to measure dropout intention and its relationship with a series of variables. Descriptive analyses and decision tree modelling were performed. The results reveal that the most significant predictor variables to explain dropout intention are satisfaction with degree choice, expectations, and learning knowledge that is relevant to their professional future. Students’ perception that their academic performance had decreased during COVID-19 was also found to be one of the predictors of dropout.