Main Article Content

Ivan D Trofimov
Kolej Yayasan Saad (KYS) Business School
Vol. 12 No. 1 (2023), Articles, pages 5-38
Submitted: Jun 6, 2022 Accepted: Mar 15, 2023 Published: Jun 14, 2023
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This paper examines Wagner hypothesis of the growth of public expenditure alongside the growth of economic activity for a panel of 28 European economies during the 1995-2018 period. The hypothesis is verified using Pesaran (2007) panel unit root and Westerlund (2007) cointegration tests that account for cross-sectional dependence in the series, and three panel causality tests (Toda-Yamamoto, Dumitrescu-Hurlin and Juodis-Karavias-Sarafidis) that are suitable for mixed order of series’ integration, heterogeneous balanced panels and cases of limited evidence of cointegration. The empirical results suggested that expenditure and output variables were non-stationary in levels and stationary in the first differences; the cointegration among the variables was present; the causality was principally uni-directional (from output to public expenditure), in line with Wagner’s hypothesis, or bi-directional; the causality from public expenditure to output along Keynesian lines was limited.


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